Read Vic’s latest NFL picks against the spread.
Most people use this week to post overreactions to the Week 1 results. Not me. There is only one reaction necessary after watching the NFL games — that was some really bad football, and a necessary price to pay for the limited contact in practice and coaches’ dislike for playing their starters much in games in the shortened preseason.
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Nobody had any business picking games last week. Especially me. I went 1-4 in my top plays. (I would argue the Chiefs and Colts were clearly the right side, while the Chargers fooled me again. Shame on me.) The only things I had right in last week’s post were the 49ers rolling over an overrated Steelers team, guaranteeing the Packers win, the Dolphins winning the AFC and the Commanders winning in Survivor Pool (never in doubt).
But I don’t blame myself. That was the worst offensive week in the league in 17 years. Touchdowns were thrown at the lowest rate (3.4 percent) since 2006, per the Boston Globe, while the 6.27 yards per attempt were the lowest since 2002.
Read more: Which NFL teams can least afford an 0-2 start? Our experts react to Week 2 storylines
The three best quarterbacks — Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen — also went 0-3 (against the spread as well).
For that matter, the three rookie starting quarterbacks — Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson — went 0-3, both on the field and against the spread.
The three teams I thought were tanking for Caleb Williams (Falcons, Buccaneers and Rams) went 2-1, with all three covering the number.
GO DEEPERNFL Draft order 2024 projections: Which teams are likeliest to land in the top 10?I just gave you three reverse parlays right there.
On to the picks …
If guys like the Browns’ Myles Garrett are doing whatever they want against offenses again this week — or six more teams win after trailing in the fourth quarter — then there might be some real overreacting on my part next week.
Last week: 5-11 against the spread, 1-4 on best bets.
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made.Click herefor live odds.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, Prime Video
The Eagles sleep-walked through a win and cover over the Patriots, and now they get a Vikings bunch that is lost at sea. Jalen Hurts torched the Vikings last season. Offensively, the Vikings are much worse running the ball this season — Minnesota runners were hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 58.8 percent of their carries, and the Vikings were one of only four teams without a rush of at least 10 yards in Week 1 — while the Eagles run defense is much better. This one appears too easy.
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The pick: Eagles
GO DEEPERSuper Bowl odds and projections: Every team’s playoff chances evaluated by The Athletic’s modelLos Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans (+3) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
(Takes a deep breath.) No overreaction … . A Chargers defense led by Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack that somehow applied zero pressure against the Dolphins rights the ship against poor Ryan Tannehill. The Titans’ offensive line is one of the worst in the league. Tannehill needs time — he went 1-for-8 for 16 yards, no TDs and three INTs on throws at least 15 yards downfield in the loss to the Saints. Ideally, Titans coach Mike Vrabel doesn’t go for another field goal down four points late this week to cover the spread. Thanks, Mike.
The pick: Chargers
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
This is not good value for the Packers, who may be getting too much credit for beating the Bears. I am going to go with the Falcons at home, even though I am not a Desmond Ridder guy and they still don’t throw Kyle Pitts (or Drake London) the ball much despite drafting them so high. Ridder’s average pass traveled just 3.5 yards downfield, the second shortest league-wide behind only Justin Fields (3.1). But Bijan Robinson will carry the load offensively, while the addition of Calais Campbell was a big one for the suddenly solid Falcons defense.
The pick: Falcons
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+1.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Richardson played well in his debut last week, before getting blasted on the last drive of the game. He is in for a tougher test this week against Will Anderson Jr. and the improved Texans defense. The Colts miss Jonathan Taylor worse than they even imagined. Colts running backs accounted for the fewest yards from scrimmage of any running back room in Week 1 (25 yards rushing, 0 receiving) and their combined EPA per intended touch (targets plus rushes) was nearly twice as bad as the 31st-ranked team (-0.75 vs. -0.39 by Saints). The Texans should be favored.
The pick: Texans
GO DEEPERColts rookie Anthony Richardson's minute-by-minute NFL debut: 'I didn't do good enough'Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-5.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Is it possible the Seahawks took the Rams too lightly last week? Or were people who thought they were good just way off? I don’t like the chances of a bounce back as the Lions should be able to put up some points. Rookies Jahmyr Gibbs (nine touches for 60 scrimmage yards) and Sam LaPorta (five catches for 39 yards) were the first pair of rookie teammates to each have at least five touches in a season opener since 2021 (Eagles’ DeVonta Smith and Kenneth Gainwell). They both build on that this week.
The pick: Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs had a nice NFL debut and the Lions will keep it rolling this week. (David Eulitt / Getty Images)
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (-2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
If you want to back Fields on a humid day in Tampa, be my guest but I am going the other way. The Bears don’t blitz much, and Baker Mayfield posted the league’s top passer rating (116.7) and a top-10 EPA/dropback (0.14) against a standard pass rush in Week 1 (12-for-18, 95 yards, two TDs, no INTs). The truth of the matter is he actually didn’t play that well (hint: he is not good) and the Bucs still beat the Vikings. The Vikings are better than the Bears …
The pick: Buccaneers
Las Vegas Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-9.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Bills will be angry, apparently, after losing to the Jets in the opener. So what? They are better than the Raiders if they are skipping around smiling, as they have too many weapons offensively for Maxx Crosby and company to deal with and the Bills pass rush is legit, even without Von Miller. That’s OK, the Raiders are playing with house money after winning in Denver and spending the week practicing in West Virginia. We mentioned our concerns about Josh Allen back in May, and the Raiders will feed Josh Jacobs and he will keep them close in this one.
The pick: Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Chiefs didn’t have their two best players not named Mahomes last week, dropped a million passes — one of which resulted in a Lions touchdown — and lost by a point. Throw in the fact that the Jaguars also had no business covering last week, and this is a double revenge game for losers like myself. The humidity may be a problem, but I don’t think Trevor Lawrence behind an offensive line missing key pieces will be.
The pick: Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
If you’re confident Burrow and his balky calf will be better than last week, read no further. If you’re like me and have no idea, focus on the Ravens offense instead. In their first game with new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, the Ravens were flagged for six penalties in Week 1, tied with the Panthers for the most. They will be cleaner this week, and the explosive plays that we were all looking forward to will be enough to beat the Bengals no matter how Burrow plays.
The pick: Ravens
New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
We’re also going to assume the Commanders took the Cardinals lightly. Arizona still didn’t score an offensive touchdown in that game and is the perfect get-well gift for the Giants. The Cardinals’ pass rush and secondary will seem like a vacation for Daniel Jones after he was running for his life against the Cowboys. He was pressured on 28 of his 42 dropbacks (66.7 percent), the highest rate of any Week 1 QB and the highest in any start of his career.
The pick: Giants
Daniel Jones was under constant pressure against the Cowboys, but life will be easier against the Cardinals. (Ed Mulholland / USA Today)
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (+8.5) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The 49ers looked incredible, and the Rams linebackers seem like they will be in over their heads trying to contain Christian McCaffrey. That is a big point spread, and Matthew Stafford looked like he reverse-aged five years. He was dealing last week and 57.9 percent of his passes were to targets at or beyond the first-down marker. That was the second-highest rate among Week 1 QBs (the average was 41 percent) and Stafford’s highest in any game since Week 5 of 2021 … also against Seattle. He attacked the middle of the field, but I don’t think he can do that against the 49ers’ star-laden defense.
The pick: 49ers
New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Both teams are coming off emotional wins, but the Jets overcame losing starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers after he came out on the field holding an American flag to honor the victims on the anniversary of 9/11. That’s a lot. If the Jets aren’t up for the Cowboys — after a short week — as soon as the game starts, the Cowboys’ incredible pass rush could put them in a hole. And I think Dak Prescott makes enough plays to keep the Jets there.
The pick: Cowboys
GO DEEPERNFL Power Rankings: Let's overreact! Cowboys are the best in the leagueWashington Commanders at Denver Broncos (-3.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Sam Howell has a lot of moxie. That’s what I keep hearing. I would prefer that a guy has a lot of talent, and also that a guy doesn’t just give the other team the ball before the half. But the Broncos didn’t get a lot of pressure on the quarterback last week, so Howell might be in luck. And the Commanders’ defense is better than the Raiders, who shut down Russell Wilson in the second half. Jerry Jeudy’s return would help things, but I see the Commanders losing by three if not winning by three. So, either way. You can’t lose.
The pick: Commanders
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (+3) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
This is a classic trap line, as the Dolphins scorched the Chargers and oh, by the way, Bill Belichick is 0-4 straight up and ATS against Tua Tagovailoa. I am going to bite. Mac Jones no longer has a defensive coordinator for an offensive coordinator, and he played pretty well against the Eagles late last week. And the Patriots defense is above average and was able to contain Hurts last week.
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The pick: Patriots
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+3) | 7:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN
Derek Carr was harassed last week and the Panthers have the defensive line to make life tough for the Saints QB again. I am not sure the right side is favored when you also consider that the Panthers’ Miles Sanders should fare well against the Saints. Also, New Orleans has now won four of its last five games decided by a single point — the league’s fourth-most such wins since the stretch began in Week 4 of 2016 — so even if it wins, it won’t cover the spread.
The pick: Panthers
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC
Garrett should feast again this week against a Steelers offensive line that is mediocre at best. Last week, he posted six pressures in the win over the Bengals, who gained yards on just one of those dropbacks (one completion, one sack by Garrett, one sack by a teammate, three incompletions). Cameron Heyward, meanwhile, is out for the Steelers defense, which will make life easier for running back Nick Chubb. That’s good, because his quarterback Deshaun Watson had the second-highest rate of off-target incompletions in Week 1 (20.7 percent) and no player had a higher rate of bad throws on third down (37.5 percent, 3-of-8).
The pick: Browns
Best bets: Chargers over Titans, Texans over Colts, Giants over Cardinals, 49ers over Rams, Browns over Steelers.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Ravens over Bengals. I could have made a case for Lamar Jackson when I mentioned the top quarterbacks earlier. But he’s gotta take care of us here first.
Survivor Pool: Cowboys. They will make the Jets consider signing Carson Wentz. (We used the Commanders last week.)
—TruMedia research courtesy of NFL editor Jason Starrett.
(Top photo of Myles Garrett: Jason Miller / Getty Images)
“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, goes on sale this fall. Preorder ithere.
Vic Tafur is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the Las Vegas Raiders and the NFL. He previously worked for 12 years at the San Francisco Chronicle and also writes about boxing and mixed martial arts. Follow Vic on Twitter @VicTafur
