It’s time to go on record with Week 2 NFL picks against the spread.
This column publishes every Thursday morning. If there is major injury/COVID-19-related news (like a starting quarterback being out) that significantly changes the line, I will update my pick here before kickoff. I will tweet out the updated linkif changes are made.
Now let’s get to it!
Last week: 10-5-1
Last season: 146-107-3
New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-3.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, NFLN
Want to get a sense for how things are going for the Giants after their Week 1 loss to the Denver Broncos? Check out this column byThe Athletic’sDan Duggan. The lead item describes how fans are calling for Freddie Kitchens to replace Jason Garrett as offensive coordinator. Yup, that just about sums up the state of the team.
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The Giants’ offensive line held up surprisingly well last week, but Daniel Jones had a key fumble, the defense got shredded, and it’s unclear how Garrett is going to give them an edge. As for Washington, they hung tough in a loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, but Ryan Fitzpatrick went down with an injury. It’ll be Taylor Heinicke in this one. My rule for games where I have no faith in either offense: Take the points.
The pick: Giants (+3.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears (-2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
When you’re a team like the Bengals that’s won just six games in the previous two seasons, you reallyappreciate every victory.
“It doesn’t get much better than this,” said safety Jessie Bates, according toThe Athletic’sJay Morrison. “I’m sure some guys were probably in there hungover a little bit. But that’s part of it.”
The city might shut down if they win two in a row.
The Bears, meanwhile, employed a dink-and-dunk strategy in their loss to the Los Angeles Rams, with Andy Dalton’s average pass traveling just 4.2 yards past the line of scrimmage. They didn’t produce a single completion of 20 yards or more. That’ll have to change if they want to notch their first win here. And if they lose, the calls for Justin Fields will grow even louder. I think the Bears’ defense bounces back, they force a key turnover late, and they win a close one.
The pick: Bears (-2.5)
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-12.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
My favorite sequence in the Texans’ Week 1 win against the Jacksonville Jaguars came just before halftime. After intercepting Trevor Lawrence, Houston had the ball at the Jacksonville 7. From there, it strung together a five-play, zero-yard drive that included penalties on both teams and Tyrod Taylor lateraling the ball out of bounds. That right there is why the NFL is king. Brandin Cooks was terrific in that game, but I’m not going to overreact to Week 1. The Texans still have a lot of issues.
As for the Browns, as explained below, I’m even more bullish on them now than I was before Week 1. They bounce back here with a decisive victory.
The pick: Browns (-12.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts (+4) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
It’s hard to imagine the Rams’ debut with Matthew Stafford going any better. He threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 12.3 yards per attempt (YPA) in a 34-14 win. The Rams’ offense finished first among all Week 1 teams in TruMedia’s Expected Points Added (EPA) per play model. Stafford was 8-for-8 for 155 yards, six first downs and two touchdowns when using play-action.
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As for the Colts’ offense, everything seemed hard for them in Week 1. With their two-deep coverages, the Rams will challenge Carson Wentz to be patient and efficient — two things that have not been a strength. There’s a scenario where the Colts force a couple turnovers, Jonathan Taylor goes off, and Indianapolis bounces back. But I just see a wide talent gap between these two teams.
The pick: Rams (-4)
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+3.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
In two games against the Dolphins last year (both wins), Josh Allen completed 70 percent of his passes, averaged 10.7 YPA and threw seven touchdowns with one interception. I am not panicking about the Bills. The Pittsburgh Steelers are a bad matchup for them, but Buffalo should get back on track here.
In Week 1, I thought Tua Tagovailoa looked good when he was getting the ball out on time and operating from the pocket. Bad things seemed to happen when he tried to create with second-reaction plays.
The pick: Bills (-3.5)
New England Patriots at New York Jets (+6) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
This looks like the “bettor beware” game of the week. The Patriots coming off of a tough loss. Bill Belichick scheming for a rookie quarterback. And the Jets playing without starting left tackle Mekhi Becton. It should all add up to a Patriots blowout victory, right? Maybe.
If last week is any indication, New England’s offense is going to be more methodical than explosive. The Jets’ defense lacks talent, but Robert Saleh has shown in the past that he can do more with less, and this group held up pretty well last week against the Carolina Panthers in Week 1. This game has the second-lowest over/under (43) of any Week 2 game. I’m taking the points.
The pick: Jets (+6)
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (+3) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Eagles fans went from “I have no expectations this season” at 1 p.m. last Sunday to “Maybe we can win the division?” by 4 p.m. Their offensive and defensive lines dominated in a win against the Atlanta Falcons, and that will have to be the formula again if they’re going to upset the 49ers. It would be no surprise to see Kyle Shanahan rely heavily on the run game. The Eagles played with two deep safeties on 39 snaps last week, according to TruMedia and Pro Football Focus.
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The 49ers looked shaky defensively at times against the Detroit Lions, and they lost starting corner Jason Verrett to a season-ending injury. I think Jalen Hurts will be able to make some plays against this group and keep it close.
The pick: Eagles (+3)
Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
It’s entirely fair to question Jon Gruden’s personnel decisions, but he showed once again Monday night that he’s an excellent schemer and play-caller. The Raiders piled up 491 yards of offense and 26 first downs in their victory against the Baltimore Ravens. Defensively, Gus Bradley kept things pretty vanilla, playing a high percentage of Cover-3 and counting on the pass rush to get home.
The Steelers, meanwhile, used defense and special teams to produce an impressive upset on the road in Buffalo, but I still need to see a lot more from their offense before I’m going to be a believer.
The Raiders are flying cross-country following an emotional, hard-fought Monday night victory. It’s entirely possible that they get blown out. But if Maxx Crosby and company can put some pressure on Ben Roethlisberger, I think this will be a tight game.
The pick: Raiders (+5.5)
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+3.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Perhaps no Week 1 victory was more impressive than the Saints’ against the Green Bay Packers. Coming into 2021, Dennis Allen’s defenses had finished in the top 10 in DVOA for four consecutive seasons. And New Orleans did a nice job of bottling up Aaron Rodgers and company. The Saints are banged up, with center Erik McCoy, cornerback Marshon Lattimore and defensive end Marcus Davenport all having suffered injuries in that game.
Sam Darnold didn’t have to be great in the Panthers’ win against the Jets. Joe Brady did a good job of helping him. According to Next Gen Stats, just 5.7 percent of Darnold’s attempts were into tight windows. That was the lowest percentage of any Week 1 starter. The Panthers’ defense has a number of young, talented, athletic players. I think they make life hard for Jameis Winston here and keep it close.
The pick: Panthers (+3.5)
Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Just wondering: Is it normal for a team account to have to send out a tweet where a head coach, one game into his tenure, confirms that he’s committed to the organization?
Brick by brick.#DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/ctczfpEIVF
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) September 15, 2021
No team looked less prepared than the Jaguars in Week 1. They had 10 penalties, three turnovers, five drops and went three-and-out on a league-high 50 percent of their offensive possessions. Defensively, they gave up 449 yards to the Tyrod Taylor-led Texans.
The Broncos, meanwhile, looked like a well-coached, professional team in their win against the Giants. Maybe I’ll tweak this down the road, but for now, I’m going to impose the following rule: If the Jaguars’ opponent is favored by less than a touchdown, go ahead and take them to cover.
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The pick: Broncos (-6)
Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Kyler Murray ranks second behind only Patrick Mahomes in PTMMC (Plays That Make Me Cackle). Murray was on the short list of best players I saw in Week 1, making ridiculous throw after ridiculous throw in the Cardinals’ blowout win against the Tennessee Titans.
The Vikings, meanwhile, feel like a team that’s stuck in mud. In a loss against the Bengals, the offense had the same issues it always seems to have — messy pass protection and a risk-averse Kirk Cousins. On defense, they gave up too many big plays. And Minnesota was whistled for 15 penalties.
There’s absolutely a scenario where Chandler Jones sacks Cousins 17 times and the Cardinals win a laugher. But I’m trying not to overreact to Week 1 here. I don’t think the Cardinals are as good as they looked last week, and I don’t think the Vikings are as bad as they looked.
The pick: Vikings (+3.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-12) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Thing I learned this week: Matt Ryan calls his head coach Art. Maybe Falcons fans would prefer I just end the analysis there?
Atlanta’s offensive line was a disaster last week, and Arthur Smith employed a conservative, run-heavy approach. This week against the Bucs, the Falcons know they’ll have to score to be competitive, but again, protecting Matt Ryan will be difficult. It’s hard to overstate how much more talent the Bucs have, but this is a big number in a divisional game. I’m banking on a back-door cover.
The pick: Falcons (+12)
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
I saw everything I wanted to see from the Chargers in Week 1:
- A pass-first approach on early downs.
- A healthy dose of play-action.
- An improved offensive line.
- Justin Herbert doing Justin Herbert things.
Playing without DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory, it’s tough to see a scenario where the Cowboys slow down Herbert. Offensively, the Cowboys looked good in Week 1, but they’ll be without right tackle La’el Collins. This might be the most fun matchup of the weekend.
The pick: Chargers (-3.5)
Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Two teams with new offensive coordinators who had very different experiences in Week 1. The Seahawks with Shane Waldron ran the ball well and produced explosive plays downfield. The Titans with Todd Downing looked like a complete disaster with three turnovers and six sacks.
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Defensively, I didn’t think Tennessee was quite as bad as the final score against the Cardinals indicated. Murray made a number of high degree-of-difficulty throws. This is another game where I’m trying not to overreact. The Titans still have Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, Ryan Tannehill and an offensive line that looks solid on paper. I think they can rebound and put up some points to keep this one close.
The pick: Titans (+5.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
The craziest stat from Week 1 came courtesy of ESPN’s Jamison Hensley, who noted that John Harbaugh was 81-0 in the regular season when holding a 14-point lead prior to Monday night’s loss against the Raiders.
This is one of those lines that seems like it should be higher. The Chiefs’ offense looked as explosive as ever in their win against the Browns. And Patrick Mahomes is generally lethal against teams like the Ravens that blitz a lot. Baltimore’s offensive tackles played poorly in Week 1, and no team has been hit harder by injuries than the Ravens. I really hate going against Harbaugh as a home underdog, and if this line were higher, I’d probably lean the Ravens’ way. But this is just a tough matchup at a tough time for them.
The pick: Chiefs (-3.5)
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-11) | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN, ESPN2
The Lions’ late-game flurry last week against the 49ers was amazing. They’re probably going to be really bad, but maybe Detroit can at least be entertaining? I would expect Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ offense to rebound and light up the scoreboard. But it’s fair to wonder whether the defensive issues could persist under new coordinator Joe Barry. At the very least, this could be a group that needs three or four weeks to get used to a new scheme.
I think this one could be ugly for the Lions, but with an 11-point spread, I’m counting on Jared Goff for some garbage-time nonsense.
The pick: Lions (+11)
(Graphic: Wes McCabe / The Athletic; photo: Rob Carr / Getty Images)
