In an encouraging start to Week 1, I nailed both my UTSA-over-Illinois Upset Special and Virginia Tech-over-UNC Top 10 upset … and still somehow finished below .500.
Lesson learned: Don’t pick TOO many upsets. I’m going to make it up and more this week.
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No. 12 Oregon at No. 3 Ohio State (-14.5), Noon (Fox)
The Ducks are going to need an all-time performance by quarterback Anthony Brown, because even as talented a defense as Oregon’s (defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux, linebacker Justin Flowe and cornerback Mykael Wright, et al.) isn’t going to shut down Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Miyan Williams and TreVeyon Henderson all game. Ohio State 40, Oregon 21
Pick: Ohio State (-14.5)
No. 5 Texas A&M (-17) vs. Colorado in Denver, 3:30 p.m. (Fox)
New Aggies quarterback Haynes King threw three interceptions last week against Kent State, and his team still racked up nearly 600 yards. More notably, the Wrecking Crew held an offense that averaged 607 yards per game last season to 336 yards and 10 points. The Buffs may put up an early fight, but this is a mismatch. Texas A&M 35, Colorado 14
Pick:Texas A&M (-17)
No. 10 Iowa at No. 9 Iowa State (-4.5), 4:30 p.m. (ABC)
When doing my preseason predictions, I had the Hawkeyes losing to Indiana last week, then upsetting their rivals. So, after throttling the Hoosiers and adding even more juice to this historic Cy-Hawk showdown … I’m picking against Iowa again. Mostly because I can’t see Iowa State blowing its moment in the sun. Iowa State 27, Iowa 24
Pick:Iowa (+4.5)
No. 15 Texas (-7) at Arkansas, 7 p.m. (ESPN)
All summer, the question I kept hearing was, will Texas start 0-2? I predicted 1-1, but after the way the ‘Horns looked last week, I’m ready to say 2-0. Arkansas could prove me wrong, as DC Barry Odom often has answers for a more talented foe, but I can’t see the Razorbacks having much success on offense. Texas 26, Arkansas 14
Pick:Texas (-7)
Appalachian State at No. 22 Miami (-8.5), 7 p.m. (ESPNU)
My buddy Bruce Feldman coined the term “body blow theory” to explain how teams that play a physically brutal foe like Alabama often have a carryover effect the following week. This could easily happen to the Canes against a capable App State team … but I actually think D’Eriq King and company come back strong. Miami 34, Appalachian State 24
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Pick:Miami (-8.5)
NC State (-3) at Mississippi State, 7 p.m. (ESPN2)
It’s a bit surprising to see NC State favored in this one, though Mike Leach’s team did struggle to fend off Louisiana Tech last week while the Wolfpack blanked USF 45-0. Maybe this is the year Dave Doeren’s team finally beats some above-average teams, but I’ll have to see it with my own eyes first. Mississippi State 27, NC State 24
Pick: Mississippi State (+3)
Missouri at Kentucky (-5), 7:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
This is a good one. I could see either of these teams finishing as high as second in the SEC East. We’ll certainly get a better sense of just how powerful the Wildcats’ new Will Levis/WanDale Robinson offense can be than we did against Louisiana-Monroe. But this one could easily go right down to the wire. Kentucky 33, Missouri 31
Pick:Missouri (+5)
Washington at Michigan (-7), 8 p.m. (ABC)
I’m not sure what it says about Michigan that the Huskies, who scored 7 points in a loss to FCS Montana last week, are traveling to Ann Arbor and it’s still a one-score spread. Both teams are dealing with injuries at receiver (in particular, Michigan losing Ronnie Bell for the season) that could turn this into a grinder. Michigan 22, Washington 13
Pick:Michigan (-7)
No. 21 Utah (-7) at BYU, 10:15 p.m. (ESPN)
It is such a shame the Holy War did not take place last season when Zach Wilson was at his peak for BYU. The Jaren Hall era got off to a mixed start in last week’s 24-16 win over Arizona. They’ll play better this week, but Utah quarterback Charlie Brewer is the real deal and could give the Cougars’ inexperienced defense fits. Utah 38, BYU 27
Pick:Utah (-7)
Stanford at No. 14 USC (-17), 10:30 p.m. (Fox)
One week late, David Shaw is handing the starting quarterback job to Tanner McKee, less experienced than Jack West but with much higher upside. Expect the Cardinal offense to look more competent this week. But Stanford’s defense is highly suspect and about to face a more balanced version of Graham Harrell’s Air Raid. USC 34, Stanford 20
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Pick:Stanford (+17)
Upset Special: Houston (-7.5) at Rice, 6:30 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
Rice has been gradually improving under fourth-year coach Mike Bloomgren — the Owls stunned then-undefeated Marshall 20-0 last season. Whereas Houston, which just got run over by Texas Tech, feels like it’s moving in the wrong direction. This is a great opportunity for defensive-led Rice to pull the upset. Rice 24, Houston 20
Pick:Rice (+7.5)
Last week’s record: 5-6 straight up, 4-5-2 against the spread.
(Note: Odds and point spreads are constantly changing. These are the spreads at time of writing and will not be updated. Click here for live odds. All times Eastern.)
(Top photo: Matthew Holst / Getty; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through links contained in the above article.)
Stewart Mandel is editor-in-chief of The Athletic's college football coverage. He has been a national college football writer for two decades with Sports Illustrated and Fox Sports. He co-hosts "The Audible" podcast with Bruce Feldman. Follow Stewart on Twitter @slmandel
