Christmas has come and gone as we’re now down to the final two weeks of the 2023-24 NFL regular season.
After a few disappointing weeks, it was a winning holiday weekend for yours truly, as I went 3-2 against the spread (ATS) and nailed my bonus bet of Browns-Texans over 42.5 points as the two teams combined to put up 58 points.
With Week 17 upon us, here’s my record so far for the season:
2023 record: 47-48-2
Against the spread: 39-40-2
Bonus Bets: 8-8
Here are my five best bets against the spread, and one over/under to bet on this weekend:
Cleveland Browns (-7) vs. NY Jets
Week 17 kicks off with the Jets heading to Cleveland to take on the Browns on Thursday night.
While the Jets may have defeated the Commanders in the Meadowlands last weekend, I’m laying the points with the Browns here.
What channel is Jets game on?How to watch Thursday night
Gang Green was fortunate to beat Washington after holding a 27-7 lead at halftime and a two-score lead going into the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, the Browns have looked better than they have all season, winners of three straight with former Jets QB Joe Flacco under center after a 36-22 victory over the Texans in Week 16.
With Jets QB Zach Wilson already officially ruled out for Sunday's game, Trevor Siemian will get his third consecutive start.
The Jets are a disappointing 1-4-1 ATS in six road games this season and have failed to cover in 10 of 15 contests in 2023.
On the other side, Cleveland is one of the best covering teams in the NFL and is 7-1 ATS at home this year.
It’s a tall task for the Jets as they’re on the road, on a short week, and playing a red-hot Browns offense and a defense that plays much better at home.
Flacco’s odds will continue to soar for Comeback Player of the Year as he takes care of business Thursday night with at least a touchdown win over the Jets.
BetParx and BetRivers have the best available price of -109 (Bet $109 to net $100) for the Browns as a touchdown favorite.
How to bet Giants vs. Rams:A look at Sunday's game as Tyrod Taylor is starting QB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
Speaking of the CPOY award, another one in the top-five in terms of betting the odds is Bucs QB Baker Mayfield.
Despite a 4-7 start, the former No. 1 overall pick has led the Buccaneers to four straight victories and they're now heavy favorites to win the NFC South with a one-game lead over the Saints and Falcons.
After a dominating 30-12 victory over the Jaguars this past Sunday, I’d lay the points again.
The Bucs are just 3-4 against the spread at Raymond James Stadium, but have covered in seven of their past 10 games and are tied for a league-best 10-5 ATS.
While the Saints are well rested after playing on Thursday night in Week 16, they’re only 4-10-1 ATS and have not covered on the road since Week 5 against the Patriots.
What’s a bit concerning is that while the Saints are only a game under .500, the record of the teams they’ve beaten is a combined 30-60 this season. They’ve beaten down on bad opponents but have struggled against better competition.
It also shouldn’t be forgotten that the Buccaneers went into the Superdome and easily handled business in a 26-9 win over the Saints back in Week 4.
New Orleans could make the division race much more interesting with a win, but I don’t see it happening with an inconsistent offense going to Tampa and facing this current Bucs team.
It might come at a heavy price of -120 (Bet $120 to win $100), but I’d lay the -2.5 spread with Buccaneers now on FanDuel Sportsbook as all other sportsbooks have Tampa Bay as a field goal favorite.
Miami Dolphins (+4) vs. Baltimore Ravens
We head to Charm City for a matchup between two of the best teams in the AFC.
The Dolphins are coming off a last-second walk-off field goal in a 22-20 win over the Cowboys.
On the other side, the Ravens are coming off an absolute dominant performance as they crushed the NFC-leading 49ers, 33-19, on Monday night.
These two AFC juggernauts are not only good record-wise but are in the same company as the Buccaneers with a 10-5 against-the-spread record.
This is a heavyweight battle that features the league highest-scoring offense versus a defense that surrenders the fewest points per game (16.3 PPG).
Last year’s matchup was pure insanity when Miami rallied from a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit to stun the Ravens, 42-38, at M&T Bank Stadium.
QB Tua Tagovailoa torched Baltimore’s secondary for six touchdowns and 469 passing yards, while WR Tyreek Hill had 11 receptions for 190 receiving yards and two touchdowns in his second career game in a Dolphins uniform.
I don’t anticipate another unworldly performance from the Dolphins’ duo, but I’m banking on them covering the spread.
There’s no denying how good Baltimore has been, especially with new front-runner for MVP in QB Lamar Jackson playing his best football of the season over the past couple weeks.
However, after such a monumental victory in San Francisco and now facing a short week against the Dolphins, I believe the Ravens could be in for a bit of a letdown here.
Ultimately, the Ravens win this must-see matchup for top seed in the conference, though Miami covers the spread.
Numerous sportsbooks have the Dolphins as a four-point underdog at -110.
Dallas Cowboys (-6) vs. Detroit Lions
The Cowboys are trying to bounce back after nearly pulling off a win in Miami.
Now back at home, I’m backing Dallas with full confidence here.
It’s been clear that the Cowboys have been unstoppable at home, winning all seven games so far, outsourcing opponents, 279-108, and averaging nearly 40 points per game at AT&T Stadium.
The Lions are coming off arguably their biggest win in franchise history after they claimed their first division title in 30 years with a 30-24 win over the Vikings.
Similar to the Ravens, I think this could be a disappointment for Detroit.
They’ve lost five straight head-to-head meetings and have not won in the Lone Star State since 2011.
I believe this is a get-right scenario for the Cowboys after suffering two straight losses for the first time this season, winning this one by at least two scores in this Saturday night matchup.
Green Bay Packers (+2) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Week 17 wraps up on Sunday night with an NFC North matchup in Minnesota.
The Packers nearly blew a 30-16 fourth-quarter lead to the lowly Carolina Panthers, but escaped with a 33-30 win over the NFL’s worst team.
Now playing their final road game of the season, I’d bet on them here.
After moving to 6-4, the Vikings are starting to unravel, losing four of their past five games and finding themselves on the outside looking in at the playoff picture.
To make matters worse, it was announced on Tuesday afternoon that star tight end T.J. Hockenson suffered a torn ACL and MCL in Week 16 and will now be out for the remainder of the season.
Green Bay is not great against the spread away from Lambeau Field (3-5 ATS), however, Minnesota has not covered in five of seven games on their home field.
The Packers have proven to be vulnerable on defense over the previous three weeks, but with the Vikings struggling and losing one of their best playmakers, I’d wager on Green Bay to cover this small spread.
There’s still a handful of sportsbooks that have the Packers listed as a two-point underdog at -110.
Bonus Bet: Indianapolis Colts vs. Las Vegas Raiders OVER 43.5 points
One of the best bets you can make this entire season has been to wager on the total going over in any Colts game.
Indianapolis is tied with the Lions for a league-best 10-5 to the over this season and have had 43 or more points scored in each of their last four home games.
While the Raiders are the best in the NFL at 11-4 to the under, their 25th-ranked scoring offense should have an easier time versus this below-average Colts defense.
With Las Vegas potentially getting back running back Josh Jacobs, the leading rusher a season ago, these two teams should have no problem going over this average over/under indoors on Sunday.
Bet the over of 43.5 points now on FanDuel Sportsbook as all other sportsbooks have already moved this total to 44.
