NFL Pick'em Pool Picks: Week 11 Targets, Avoids, Predictions (2023) (2024)

Could this be the easiest Pick 'Em week of the 2023 season so far? I can say this, I had the easiest time writing this one out of any column through the first 11 weeks. There are a bevy of heavy favorites that are, seemingly, easy picks. Of course, that means we're probably due for a flurry of upsets.

Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game, and rank the selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.

Some weeks you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. Injury question marks for Sunday and Monday games may still be hanging. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player suits up or not. Without further ado, let’s jump into our locks of the week.

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Week 11 NFL Pick 'Em Pool Locks

The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.

• 14 - Miamivs. Las Vegas
• 13 - Dallas at Carolina
• 12 - Detroit vs. Chicago
• 11 - San Francisco vs. Tampa Bay
• 10 - Jacksonvillevs. Tennessee
• 9 - Washingtonvs. New York Giants
• 8 - Buffalo vs. New York Jets

Five of the seven games listed above are double-digit spreads of this writing. The other two are hovering right around a touchdown difference.

The Las Vegas Raiders are back to .500 after winning two straight games under interim coach Antonio Pierce. But they're still a below-average team and the Miami Dolphins have been preying on opponents in that tier. The Dallas offense is officially a well-oiled machine and gets a mediocre Carolina defense (and an even worse offense) on the road in Week 11. Detroit returns home after a shootout win over the Chargers and gets to face another defense that they can light up.

With Deebo Samuel and offensive tackle Trent Williams back on the field, the 49ers' offense picked apart the Jaguars. A better offense granted the defense more rest, which allowed them to dominate as well. On the other side of that matchup, Jacksonville kept sleeping through their bye. We've seen them beat good teams, which means they can also beat bad teams like Tennessee.

The New York Giants may not win another game this season. Undrafted rookie Tommy Devito can't run an efficient offense and the defense has regressed again. Josh Allen is still turning the ball over often but hopefully won't repeat his sloppy play that cost the Bills their Week 1 matchup against the Jets.

Semi-Confident Picks For Week 11 Pick 'Em Pools

7 - Houstonvs. Arizona

How much do the Carolina Panthers regret passing on quarterback C.J. Stroud? Not only is the rookie winning multiple games (something that Bryce Young is definitely not doing), he's executing in clutch fashion and tallying video game numbers.

While he's been great, the MVP buzz Stroud is starting to receive is a little premature. The Texans are just one game over .500 through ten weeks. Rookie of the Year is a lock at least.

Kyler Murray returned and already doubled the number of wins Arizona has on the season. With the former first-overall pick under center, James Conner back from injured reserve, and Marquise Brown, Trey McBride, and Michael Wilson as receiving options, this offense is suddenly a lot of fun. The defense, however, will remain a work in progress.

6 - Minnesota at Denver

Joshua Dobbs is already in command of the Minnesota Vikings' offense and may get All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson back in Week 11. Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson as weapons will make any quarterback look like a star.

The Vikings have rattled off five wins in a row, all without Jefferson, and a pair without quarterback Kirk Cousins. The defense has improved leaps and bounds from early in the season and, as stated above, there are no worries about the offense. This is a playoff team once again.

The Denver defense is no longer the laughing stock that it was in September and will keep this game competitive. That's something we couldn't say just a few weeks ago.

5 - Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay

The Los Angeles Chargers sit a game under .500 but also have a +24 point differential. They're the only team with a losing record with a differential in the green. But that's been a trend for the Chargers under Brandon Staley (and even before him). They can put up points and blow out bad teams, but can't pick up a signature win over a superior opponent.

The schedule presents Justin Herbert and Co. with a prime rebound opportunity. A bad Green Bay Packers team is next on the docket. The run defense is abysmal and allowed the Steelers to rush for over 200 yards. Jordan Love can't connect at all with Christian Watson, who was pegged to be his top receiving option this season.It's just not happening on either side of the football for the Packers.

NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Ups Of Week 11

4 - Seattleat Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford is planning on making his return to the lineup against the Seahawks, which makes the Rams a dangerous team once again. With Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua, the Rams can toss with the best of them. Washington quarterback Sam Howell just threw for over 300 yards against Seattle, but digging deeper into the box score better tells the story.

The Seahawks' secondary clamped down on the Washington wideouts. Their top pass catcher, Terry McLaurin, tallied just 33 yards. Jahan Dotson, the second option, didn't register a single catch. Washington's two leading receivers were both of the running backs, Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson. Threats out of the backfield have been beating the Seattle defense, not wideouts.

So, it's a battle of strength vs. strength. Seattle is the better team overall and is squarely in the playoff race right now, but Sean McVay always plays them tough. The Seahawks are just minor road favorites.

3 - Clevelandvs. Pittsburgh

The stat has been talked about ad nauseam over the last few weeks, but with every passing game, the numbers become even crazier. The Steelers have been outgained in every single game this season. They are three games above .500.

Find a way to win. It's all the coaches care about in the end. There's another team just finding a way to win, albeit not quite at the same level as Pittsburgh. It's their Week 11 opponent, the Cleveland Browns.

Three of their last four wins came down to the wire, including a missed San Francisco field goal and multiple drive-extending penalties against Indianapolis. Down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter at Baltimore, Deshaun Watson led a touchdown drive and then the defense stole six with an interception. A missed extra point still had the Browns behind, but they were able to get the ball back and convert a game-winning field goal.

Two defensive touchdowns propelled the Steelers to a victory at home in this matchup in Week 2. The Browns' defense will be the key to splitting the season series.

2 - Baltimorevs. Cincinnati

Just when the world was buying back into the Bengals as Super Bowl contenders, they let a rookie quarterback dice up their defense.

Just when the world was buying into the Ravens being Super Bowl contenders, they squandered a two-touchdown, fourth-quarter lead to a division rival.

The biggest X-factor in what will be an ultra-competitive AFC North matchup is the Cincinnati run defense. In their latest winning streak, the Ravens were reliant on the run game and let Lamar Jackson make plays when it was needed. Against the Browns, the rushing attack wasn't as dominant, and a Jackson interception allowed Cleveland to get back into the game.

Currently, the Bengals allow the third-most rushing yards per game to their opponents. Plus, they'll likely be without defensive end Trey Hendrickson (knee). If Baltimore relies on their trio of capable runners (Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, and Keaton Mitchell), they should be able to dominate time of possession and walk away with a crucial win.

1 - Kansas Cityvs. Philadelphia

A Super Bowl rematch on primetime with both teams coming off of their bye week. There's a combined three losses between these two teams, who are among the favorites to win their respective conferences. Football fans can't ask for much more.

I believe Philadelphia is the better football team and spent the bye week getting healthier and working on their shaky pass defense. If this game was being played on a neutral site, say Las Vegas, the Eagles come out victorious. This contest, however, is being played at Arrowhead.

Patrick Mahomes has only lost five regular season home games since 2020. The Eagles have been flirting with fire in several close games this season. The Eagles finally get burned by the Chiefs.

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