An old pitcher comes back to the mound, and a couple of overs -- including a game where an ace is taking the hill -- highlight today's best bets.
Play 1: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Texas Rangers -- Rangers moneyline (-110) FanDuel
When Rangers pitcher Nathan Eovaldi is on and getting strikes, he's one of the top pitchers in the game. When he's off, he's issuing walks like candy and is prone to getting blown up.
Luckily for the Rangers and Eovaldi, he's been on a lot more than he's been off over the last two seasons, and his recent form gives no indication that's about to change today on the road against the Brewers.
Eovaldi is fairly dominant against both righties and lefties, though he has been a bit more reverse splitsy than most. And while the Brew Crew's expected lineup is both patient -- the projected lineup sports a walk rate north of 10% -- and doesn't whiff much (a shade under 23%), there's also not a ton of dangerous bats in the lineup past Willy Adames, Christian Yelich and William Contreras. Also notable: Eovaldi throws his splitter nearly a third of the time, and it's a pitch that has traditionally neutralized Yelich and Adames.
In short: Eovaldi's numbers and matchup indicate a solid day at the office for the Rangers pitcher.
Meanwhile, the Brewers are expected to be sending former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel to the mound.
Keuchel's best days are long behind him, and in recent years he's turned into a below average hurler, with SIERRAs at 4.96 or higher the last three years. While he's still getting ground balls, the days of 60% and higher ground ball rates are no longer. He's also been hit much harder in recent years, and his strikeout rate -- never a big part of his game to begin with -- cratered last season at 13%.
Today's Rangers lineup will feature some flyball-hitting righties in Adolis Garcia and Wyatt Langford, plus Marcus Semien, who has crushed sinkers -- Keuchel's main pitch -- to the tune of a .244 ISO and .488 wOBA.
All told, it certainly feels like the line should be closer to -150, making the Rangers side a solid bet today.
Play 2: New York Mets vs. New York Yankees – Over 8 runs (-118) DraftKings
Yankees rookie righty Luis Gil was pretty darn unhittable for most of the season. This wasn't entirely expected, as the righty has struggled with long balls and control in the minors, despite awesome strikeout numbers.
Of course, his magical season hit a pretty big bump last time out, when the Orioles tagged him for seven runs and eight hits over 1.1 innings.
So which Gil will show up tonight at Citi Field?
It very well might be the same Gil who got lit up by the O's.
The Mets first five batters -- Francisco Lindor, Brendan Nimmo, J.D. Martinez, Pete Alonso and Francisco Alvarez -- all have ISOs north of .181 over the last two years against righties. Even more telling? Against the four-seam fastball -- which Gil throws over 50% of the time -- the lowest ISO over the last two seasons is Lindor at .209, with Alvarez, Alonso and Martinez sporting eye-popping ISOs above .339.
Further complicating matters: Lindor, Nimmo and Alonso all walk at rates north of 9%. Add in the heat and humidity to help the ball carry, and it's not so far-fetched to see the Mets quickly getting to Gil.
On the other side, Sean Manaea takes the hill for the Mets, and Aaron Judge is on the other side, and he might hit the over all by himself. Judge has a .392 ISO and .453 wOBA against lefties the last two seasons, and a ridiculous .583 ISO against the sinker, which is Manaea's number one pitch.
Meanwhile, Anthony Volpe, Juan Soto, Gleyber Torres, J.D. Davis and Jose Trevino all have ISOs over .182 against lefties over the last two years, and the walk rate for the Yankees expected lineup is a whopping 13%.
Both offenses line up well against both pitchers, and the over should crush here, provided Gil doesn't turn back into Cinderella.
Play 3: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Minnesota Twins – Over 9 (-110) FanDuel
While the Mets-Yankees over hinges on whether Luis Gil goes back to being dominant, no such barrier exists in the Diamondbacks-Twins game, as the D-Backs are sending Ryne Nelson to the hill, who has been on of MLB's worst starters two years running.
Including last season, Nelson is simply getting hammered, and from both sides of the plate.
ISO rates are .225 against lefties, .216 against righties. His wOBA numbers are .359 against lefties, .369 against righties. He's giving up 31% hard hits against lefties, a eye-watering 45% against righties. He's being barrelled at 10% rate against lefties, an 11.4% against righties. Complicating matters is a 15% K rate and a 6.7% walk rate. Balls get hit hard and hit often against Nelson.
As for the Twins lineup? They've been white hot over the last month, with the fourth highest ISO and third highest wOBA in MLB. And on the season, against Nelson's main pitch, the four seam fastball? Five players with ISOs above .240.
Unless a minor miracle happens, the Twins are going to score runs tonight.
On the other side, the Twins are sending Simeon Woods Richardson to the mound. And while Woods Richardson has been pitching well, some of his underlying numbers hint at regression coming at some point, most notably his 10.6 barrel percentage and .264 BABIP.
And that regression can certainly come tonight, with the top half of the D-Backs lineup lining up very nicely against Woods Richardson.
To wit: Joc Pederson has a .319 ISO against the four-seam fastball, Woods-Richardson's top pitch. Christian Walker is even more deadly against it, with a .385 ISO.
Meanwhile, the slider is Woods Richardson's next most-used pitch. Ketel Marte's ISO is .472 over the last two campaigns against the slider, and Corbin Carroll clocks in at .349.
Not going to be easy pickings for either pitcher in the desert tonight. Give me the over.
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Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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