Pictured: Francisco Lindo (left) and Matt Olson (right). Photos: Getty Images
Originally posted onAction Network|Last updated 6/22/24
Giantsvs.Cardinals
Saturday, June 22, 2:15 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Giants Moneyline (-105, DraftKings)
The Giants have lost three in a row, but they have scored five runs in each of their past two games. San Francisco's offense, albeit in a small sample size, is trending up and Cardinals' starter Miles Mikolas, while fine, is vulnerable.
Mikolas has given up just one run over his past two starts (13 1/3 innings) but still possesses a 3.97 xERA. Mikolas also ranks in the 35th percentile or lower in Hard-Hit%, strikeout rate, whiff percentage and chase rate. The Giants will put the ball in play all afternoon against the 35-year-old right-hander, and the metrics suggest a large amount of that contact will be hard.
Giants starter Jordan Hicks is also coming off a strong start, as he held the Cubs scoreless over five innings in his most recent outing. Hicks, who was drafted by the Cardinals in 2015, has been a pleasant surprise this season, his first as a starter. His metrics don't jump off the page (3.92 xERA), but he'll be up against a Cardinals offense that's averaging 3.96 runs per game, which ranks 24th in the league.
If Hicks can keep the Cardinals in check, I trust San Francisco's recent power surge to continue and I have faith the Giants can put a few runs on the board against Mikolas. I'd play San Francisco to -120.
Pick: Giants Moneyline (-105 | Play to -120)
Mets vs. Cubs
Saturday, June 22, 2:20 p.m. ET, FS1
Mets Moneyline (+106, FanDuel)
The wind will be blowing straight out at Wrigley Field on Saturday, which means runs should be aplenty. Tylor Megill will go for the visiting New YorkMets. The veteran righty has been solid this year with a 3.52 ERA and an xERA a touch over 4.00. His strikeout rate has been great at almost 28%. He does have a tendency to issue walks and hard contact, but his fastball is a solid pitch.
The Cubs will throw Jameson Taillon, who has bounced back nicely after a tough 2023 season. He has a 3.08 ERA and 3.79 xERA. He does not allow much hard contact or many walks, but his ground-ball rate is low. In addition, Taillon rarely misses any bats and does not strike many hitters out. This could be a plus for Megill with the wind being such a factor on Saturday in Chicago.
The Mets have hammered righties in June, and they have done the same with lefties — just look what they did to Shota Imanaga on Friday. This month, New York has a 124 wRC+ off righties with a strikeout rate under 20%.
The Cubs have a 98 wRC+ and 9.4% walk rate against righties in June. They strike out almost 24% of the time, so Megill will rack up the punchouts.
In relief, the Mets have a 3.37 xFIP while the Cubs are at 4.31.
Overall, take the team that should hold the edge in three major areas, even if the wind is blowing out. Bet the Mets to -125.
Pick: Mets Moneyline (+106 | Play to -125)
Braves vs. Yankees
Saturday, June 22, 7:15 p.m. ET, FOX
Braves Moneyline (+124, FanDuel)
New York hands the ball to right-hander Marcus Stroman on Saturday, and I want to fade a pitcher that is due for regression. While Stroman is 6-3 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.30 WHIP this season, he sports a fade-worthy 4.49 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA and average exit velocity.
This regression could come against Atlanta, a team the right-hander is 0-3 against over the past three meetings with a 4.15 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.
Meanwhile, right-hander Charlie Morton takes the mound for the Braves. This season, Morton outranks Stroman in WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Yes, the Yankees possess one of the best lineups in baseball. However, it's not like Atlanta's is that far behind. The Braves rank in the top half of the league in runs per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs.
Finally, Atlanta also possesses the bullpen advantage, as its relief pitching paces New York's in ERA, FIP and xFIP. Considering these variables, I think it's worth taking a shot on the road underdog at +124.
Pick: Braves Moneyline (+124 | Play to +115)
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