MLB picks: 3 best sides bets for Friday (June 28) (2024)

A perfect 3-0 day yesterday, and today we look to keep things rolling by taking two game overs and one team over. Pre-July 4 fireworks, in other words.

Play 1: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs -- Under 8.5 runs (-105) ESPN BET

Jameson Taillon vs. Colin Rea isn't a matchup that screams under, but it doesn't exactly scream over either. And once I dug into the pitch mix of each pitcher -- and how the opposing hitters fare against them -- one side became abundantly clear.

And it's the under.

Let's start with Rea, who has always been a better pitcher against righties, and who is getting better at it with age and experience. This year, he boasts a .119 ISO and .272 wOBA against righties, while generating 20% soft contact. Not quite unhittable, but certainly well above average.

He'll be facing at least five, possibly six righties at home tonight against the Cubs. So that checks out.

But against lefties, Rea is eminently hittable. A .230 ISO so far this year, along with a .354 wOBA. And the lefties the Cubs will be sending to the plate -- Cody Bellinger, Michael Busch, and Ian Happ -- all have ISOs over .180 on the year against righties.

Where the rubber will meet the road, though, is the pitch mix. Rea leans on his sinker, and only Happ has seen any success against that pitch in recent years. As such, I like Rea's chances of getting through the Cubs' lineup. Add in the Brewers bullpen -- fourth-best WHIP in the league -- and the Cubs are going to have trouble tonight.

Meanwhile, Taillon has been solid and sometimes spectacular this season. He's giving up no power -- a .126 ISO to lefties, a .113 ISO to righties -- and he's getting hit hard at a mere 26.4% rate. Furthermore, his BABIP is near .300, which means he's even been a bit unlucky.

While the Brewers lineup is certainly dangerous, they're going to have to get a lot of men on base and hope for some timely hits to get to Taillon. And though that's certainly possible, Taillon and his 5.5% walk percentage -- along with his ability to generate weak contact -- won't make it easy.

All told, I like the under.

Play 2: Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates -- Over 8.5 runs (-115) BetMGM

If the Cubs-Brewers over seems shaky, this one seems like a slam dunk to me.

For starters, the Braves will be facing lefty Martin Perez, who has struggled this year against both righties and lefties -- but worse against righties.

And he'll be facing seven of them tonight, with the lowest ISO belonging to outfielder Ramon Laureano -- and his is .198. He also has the lowest wOBA, at .335.

It goes on like this with the numbers. There is not a single data point that anyone would see that would make them say, "Yep, Martin Perez looks good tonight against the Braves."

Meanwhile, Charlie Morton toes the rubber for the hometown Atlanta squad, and while he matches up well against a relatively weak Pirates lineup, it is not without danger.

The Bucs' 2-3-4 batters -- Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz and Rowdy Tellez, a trio of left-handed bats -- may very well cause Morton fits. Morton walks lefties at a 13% rate this year, and the three of them have walk rates against righties at 14%, 8%, and 11%, respectively. Meanwhile, they all mash curveballs from righties -- all have ISOs over .200 -- which just so happens to be Morton's number one pitch (he throws it more than 40% of the time).

While the Braves should win handily, and while Morton should probably do just fine, there is danger in the middle of this lineup for him. Add that to the Braves' matchup against Perez, and the over is the clear play.

Play 3: Boston Red Sox vs. San Diego Padres -- Red Sox over 5.5 runs (+124) FanDuel

This is an alt line, with the Red Sox run line at 4.5 and -150 on the over, but I like their chances to score so much, I'll boost it up a notch to +124 and roll the dice. Honestly, this could even be laddered all the way up to over 9.5 at +830. That's how much I like the Bosox tonight.

Why? Because they match up ridiculously well against Padres pitcher Randy Vasquez, who has pitched abysmally this year.

In the minors, he struck out more than a batter an inning, and walked a ton of hitters. In the majors, however, he's doing neither. A 14.4% strikeout rate and a 5.6% walk rate this year. The man is pitching to contact.

Which would be lovely, except batters are smacking him around. A 33% hard hit percentage and a 10% barrel rate, to be precise. Lefties are really destroying him, with an ISO of .244 and a "wait, what?" wOBA of .535(!), thanks in no small part to an admittedly unsustainable .492(!!!) BABIP against.

OK fine, so maybe Vasquez has been a bit unlucky. But still: He's facing four lefties from the jump tonight in Jarren Duran, David Hamilton, Wilyer Abreu and Rafael Devers. Then he's got righty Tyler O'Neill waiting, before another lefty in Masataka Yoshida comes to the plate.

Honestly, the biggest problem potentially preventing the Red Sox from hitting the over is if they chase Vasquez before the first inning closes. But even if that happens, the Padres' bullpen is middle of the road at best.

The Red Sox should be scoring early and often at home tonight, and their team total is the play.

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