Read Stewart Mandel’s latest college football picks against the spread.
After picking Tennessee, Clemson and Alabama to win outright last week, you’d think I might just scrap this thing for the rest of the season. But even with those clunkers, I remain in the black for the season. Last week was a blip.
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Last week: 5-6 against the spread
Season: 56-53-1 against the spread
(All point spreads come from BetMGM,click herefor live odds, all kickoff times Eastern.)
No. 7 LSU (-3.5) at Arkansas, Noon, ESPN
This is a “What am I missing?” point spread, given LSU is 7-2 and just beat Alabama while Arkansas is 5-4 and just lost to Liberty. I suppose LSU could be prime for a letdown, but LSU is 14th nationally in pressure rate, Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson is banged up, and the Razorbacks are 96th in pressure rate allowed. Not ideal!
LSU 31, Arkansas 20
Pick: LSU -3
Purdue at No. 21 Illinois (-6.5), Noon, ESPN2
This is Champaign’s biggest game in recent memory. A win would all but clinch the Big Ten West, given the Illini (4-2 Big Ten) would hold a tiebreaker over every team within reach. Last week’s 23-15 loss to Michigan State was not ideal, but also deceiving: The Illini outgained the Spartans 441-294 but failed to convert five fourth downs.
Illinois 28, Purdue 20
Pick: Illinois -6.5
No. 9 Alabama (-11.5) at No. 11 Ole Miss, 3:30 p.m., CBS
It’s early November and Alabama’s primary goals of any season are all but dead. Will the Tide exhibit apathy or anger this week? Knowing Nick Saban, it will be the latter. While the Tide are clearly vulnerable to an upset, they are not a great matchup for Ole Miss, a heavily run-first team this season. Alabama has a top-10 rushing defense.
Alabama 33, Ole Miss 20
Pick: Alabama -11.5
Louisville at No. 10 Clemson (-7), 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Clemson is unquestionably a mess right now, but is it bad enough that Louisville can snap the Tigers’ 38-game home winning streak? Their last loss in Death Valley came in 2016 to Pitt. I’m going out on a limb to say yes. QB DJ Uiagalelei is really struggling and he’s about to face a Louisville team tied for the nation’s lead in sacks (36).
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Louisville 24, Clemson 20
Pick: Louisville +7
Maryland at No. 14 Penn State (-10.5), 3:30 p.m., Fox
Maryland lost 23-10 at Wisconsin last week despite Badgers QB Graham Mertz going 5-for-18 for 77 yards. Wisconsin ran it down Maryland’s throat and bottled up the Terps’ offense. Penn State, with RBs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and a talented defense, is built to do much the same thing.
Penn State 34, Maryland 20
Pick: Penn State -10.5
No. 22 UCF at No. 17 Tulane (-1.5), 3:30 p.m., ESPN2
It’s the Game of the Year so far in the AAC, but it’s hard to see Tulane, undefeated in conference play and winner of five straight, losing at home. QB Michael Pratt, an NFL draft prospect, gets more attention, but the key to Tulane’s 8-1 start has been an experienced, sound defense that jumped from 88th to 15th nationally since last season.
Tulane 30, UCF 20
Pick: Tulane -1.5
No. 25 Washington at No. 6 Oregon (-13.5), 7 p.m., Fox
The Pac-12 inadvertently produced a back-loaded schedule this season that kicks off with this big rivalry game. Both QBs, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., are capable of throwing for a ton of yards — Penix in fact leads the country with 3,232 — but Washington’s 115th-rated pass defense could be in for a world of hurt.
Oregon 44, Washington 35
Pick: Washington +13.5
No. 1 Georgia (-16.5) at Mississippi State, 7 p.m., ESPN
This could be a tricky spot for Georgia coming off its big Tennessee win, as the cowbells will be out in force and you never know whether you’re going to get the on-fire Mike Leach offense or the lay-and-egg Mike Leach offense. But I learned my lesson last week — not doubting Kirby Smart unless he gives reason to do so.
Georgia 34, Mississippi State 14
Pick: Georgia -16.5
No. 4 TCU at No. 18 Texas (-7), 7:30 p.m., ABC
Few things caused Gary Patterson more delight at TCU than taking down Texas, which he did in seven of the teams’ 10 meetings in the Big 12. Now, of course, Patterson is on the other sideline, helping the Horns’ defense scheme up a way to stop Max Duggan and Kendre Miller and ruin his old school’s College Football Playoff hopes. I like his chances.
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Texas 35, TCU 27
Pick: Texas -7
No. 15 North Carolina at Wake Forest (-3.5), 7:30 p.m., ESPN2
Tar Heels QB Drake Maye is gaining Heisman traction, but his 8-1 team is an underdog to a Wake team whose own star QB, Sam Hartman, has committed nine turnovers in his past two games. Maybe it’s because UNC’s 113th-ranked defense is so bad that a Virginia team missing its top three receivers mustered four touchdown drives last week.
Wake Forest 45, North Carolina 38
Pick: Wake Forest -3.5
This week’s upset special: North Texas at UAB (-6), 3:30 p.m., Stadium
UAB, 4-5, has been one of Conference USA’s standard bearers for several years, but the Blazers have lost three straight. Meanwhile, the Mean Green have now won 10 of their last 11 league games dating back to last season. QB Austin Aune has eclipsed 300-plus passing yards in three straight games with 11 TDs and three INTs.
North Texas 36, UAB 33
Pick: North Texas +6
(Photo: Scott Sewell / USA Today)
Stewart Mandel is editor-in-chief of The Athletic's college football coverage. He has been a national college football writer for two decades with Sports Illustrated and Fox Sports. He co-hosts "The Audible" podcast with Bruce Feldman. Follow Stewart on Twitter @slmandel
