Read Stewart Mandel’s latest college football picks against the spread.
Like Jim Harbaugh did to Ryan Day, I absolutely owned Rivalry Weekend, posting my best performance of the season against the spread to get back on the right side of .500.
And like Harbaugh’s team, I fully intend to come out of Championship Saturday with a trophy.
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Last week: 9-2 against the spread
Season: 72-69-1 against the spread
(All point spreads come from BetMGM,click herefor live odds, all kickoff times Eastern.)
Pac-12: No. 4 USC (-2.5) vs. No. 11 Utah in Las Vegas, Friday, 8 p.m., Fox
Utah beat the Trojans 43-42 at Rice-Eccles back on Oct. 15. But it’s hard to see the Utes do it again. The 9-3 Utes were fantastic at home this season, but just 3-3 on the road, with QB Cam Rising throwing one TD and five INTs in those losses. USC’s Caleb Williams has thrown three picks the entire season and is about to lock up the Heisman Trophy.
USC 45, Utah 34
Pick: USC -2.5
Conference USA: North Texas at UTSA (-8.5), Friday, 8 p.m., CBS Sports Network
UTSA needed a last-second Frank Harris touchdown pass to beat the Mean Green at home back in December. Look for the Roadrunners to handle this one more decisively against a North Texas team whose last two games were a 41-21 loss at UAB and a modest 21-17 win over 5-7 Rice.
UTSA 30, North Texas 21
Pick: UTSA -8.5
Big 12: No. 10 Kansas State vs. No. 3 TCU (-2.5) in Arlington, Texas, Saturday, Noon, ABC
I’m quite torn, to say the least. I was one of the only people on the planet to pick Kansas State to win the Big 12 in the preseason, and now I’ve got a chance to see it through. On the other hand, I learned to stop picking against TCU weeks ago. The Frogs seem to only be getting better. I’ve always said: When in doubt, lean into chaos!
Kansas State 34, TCU 31
Pick: Kansas State +2.5
MAC: Ohio vs. Toledo (-1.5) in Detroit, Saturday, Noon, ESPN
Ohio’s turnaround from 3-9 to 9-3 in Tim Albin’s second season has been remarkable. The Bobcats got some bad news last week that standout QB Nathan Rourke would be out for the season with a knee injury, but they handled Bowling Green 38-14 with first-time starter CJ Harris. Now they’ll win their first MAC championship since 1968.
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Ohio 34, Toledo 30
Pick: Ohio +1.5
AAC: No. 22 UCF at No. 18 Tulane (-4), Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ABC
It’s the year of the Green Wave. First, they beat the potential Big 12 champ, Kansas State. Then they go and end Cincinnati’s 32-game home winning streak. Now they’re hosting their first AAC Championship Game, with a trip to the Cotton Bowl in sight, and Willie Fritz announced he’s staying at Tulane. Go crazy, New Orleans.
Tulane 27, UCF 22
Pick: Tulane -4
Sun Belt: Coastal Carolina at Troy (-8.5), Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN
It sure would be nice to see Chanticleers star Grayson McCall make it back from his foot injury in time for this one. Coastal got waxed 47-7 by James Madison last week in his absence. He’d be going against a Troy defense ranked eighth nationally in scoring defense (16.8 points per game). As always, I assume Vegas knows what’s up.
Troy 19, Coastal Carolina 10
Pick: Troy -8.5
SEC: No. 1 Georgia (-17.5) vs. No. 14 LSU in Atlanta, Saturday, 4 p.m., CBS
Georgia is the overwhelming favorite for a reason. Expect the Dawgs to come after LSU star Jayden Daniels early and often. And Texas A&M sure exposed a hole in the Tigers’ defense last week. Georgia should be able to run the ball on them. But this also feels like a game where Kirby Smart gets up early and bleeds the clock from there.
Georgia 24, LSU 10
Pick: LSU +17.5
Mountain West Conference: Fresno State at Boise State (-3.5), Saturday, 4 p.m., Fox
Both these teams got markedly better over the course of the season. Fresno State is rising a seven-game win streak thanks in large part to the return of QB Jake Haener. Boise, which thumped Fresno without him 40-20, has itself won seven of eight since prompting Dirk Koetter to offensive coordinator. I like the Bulldogs to get revenge.
Fresno State 31, Boise State 28
Pick: Fresno State +3.5
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ACC: No. 9 Clemson (-7.5) vs. No. 23 North Carolina in Charlotte, N.C., Saturday, 8 p.m., ABC
Good luck forecasting this clash of moving dumpster fires. Clemson QB DJ Uiagalelei is struggling mightily, but Dabo Swinney is sticking with him. UNC’s Drake Maye is still doing his thing, but the Tar Heels’ 110th-ranked defense has particularly stunk the last two games. Give me Clemson solely based on its championship experience.
Clemson 30, North Carolina 24
Pick: North Carolina +7.5
Big Ten: No. 2 Michigan (-17) vs. Purdue in Indianapolis, Saturday, 8 p.m., Fox
I think it’s wonderful that Purdue not only gets a chance to play on this stage but to do so not far from West Lafayette. Expect Boilers fans to come out in droves. And the good news is they’ll have a short drive back after the Wolverines show not a drip of mercy, just like they did in last year’s 42-3 championship rout of Iowa.
Michigan 52, Purdue 24
Pick: Michigan -17
(Photo: Scott Sewell / USA Today)
Stewart Mandel is editor-in-chief of The Athletic's college football coverage. He has been a national college football writer for two decades with Sports Illustrated and Fox Sports. He co-hosts "The Audible" podcast with Bruce Feldman. Follow Stewart on Twitter @slmandel
