Straight-up NFL picks, Week 15: Lions-Jets? In a game with playoff implications? In December? (2024)

The Texans were 17-point road underdogs last week and were still a couple of goal line stands (for and against) from beating the Dallas Cowboys on the road. And yet here they are, facing another contender at home and once again a two touchdown underdog.

This tracks. Week 15 will pit Patrick Mahomes vs. the unholy combination of Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel. While that pair was able to outplay Dak Prescott last week (sort of), their showdown with 2022’s most efficient quarterback will make this one of the biggest talent disparities of the season. Mills has been so bad he’s ceded red zone snaps to Driskel, who plays football like an alien saw old Tim Tebow NFL broadcasts floating through the universe and attempted to describe it to a being that had never heard of sports.

The Chiefs have been vulnerable this fall. They nearly let a 27-0 lead evaporate against the Denver Broncos, a franchise the football gods threw into the air last offseason just to see how big a crater it could create when they fell. But they aren’t “lose to the Texans” bad.

And if they are, hooooo buddy, the AFC playoffs are gonna be a mess.

Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 7-7 (.500)

It’s stunning that a Week 15 tilt between the Lions and Jets will have major playoff implications. It’s even wilder that a Detroit team that was 1-6 won’t be a road underdog (technically) against a New York team that was 5-2 after Week 7.

But the Lions have been a comet streaking across the top of the NFC, winning five of their last six and looking nothing like the team that got stomped by the mediocre New England Patriots 29-0 before their bye week. Jared Goff has regained his stroke and gets a key receiving upgrade in the mix now that rookie first round pick Jameson Williams is finally healthy.

Those wins have come against some mediocre defenses. Goff’s rise has come against the:

• Packers (ranked 23rd in defensive DVOA)
• Bears (32nd)
• Giants (29th)
• Jaguars (28th)
• and Vikings (22nd)

The Jets rank sixth and have the talent to force Goff into regression. Mike White will be playing one week after taking one of the gnarliest hits of 2022, but he’ll also have the advantage of staring down a mediocre, 24th-ranked defense on the other side of the ball. New York has the tools to grind this game down to a slopfest at home, reclaim its own playoff hopes and snuff out the Lions’ hot streak.

Last week: 0-1 (1.000)
Season to date: 7-6 (.538)

I give Tennessee more credit than it is probably worth. I figured the Titans, in dire need of a get-right win, would make it nine straight over the Jacksonville Jaguars at home in Week 14. Instead, they lost by 14.

Now I have the opportunity to prove I learned nothing from this inexplicable confidence. The Chargers are peaking after stifling Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins on Sunday Night Football. Tennessee is in the midst of a three-game losing streak, the last two coming by double digits. Now their grim passing defense has to stare down Justin Herbert on the road.

But this is a game the Titans should win. Los Angeles remains vulnerable on the ground, as is tradition. The Chargers’ run defense ranks 25th in DVOA. Derrick Henry just ran for 121 yards on 17 carries against the Jaguars’ 16th-ranked unit. The opportunity will be there for Mike Vrabel’s team to grind this out.

The difference will be ball protection. Tennessee turned the ball over four times in Week 14, leading to 20 Jacksonville points in a 36-22 loss. That’s probably not something the Chargers and their 16th-ranked turnover rate can replicate. The Titans will have the leverage to play their style of football rather than rushing into a pass-heavy comeback attempt to dig themselves from a grave of their own making.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 3-11 (.214)