Bleacher Report's Expert Week 14 NFL Picks (2024)

For Week 14, our Bleacher Report NFL experts had to sort through several quarterback injuries, uncertainties around who starts at the position and a few games that will feature dueling backup signal-callers. It sounds like we're in for a roller-coaster ride this week.

As you look through these picks, understand that several teams must fight to keep playoff hopes alive, which may result in unexpected outcomes. While the consensus choices may seem chalky, experts who went against the majority provided some analysis that may sway you in the direction of the underdog.

First, let's check out the overall standings against the spread and straight up with Week 13 results in parentheses. With a Week 13 tie ATS, our group went .500, and, as usual, fared well in picking outright winners.

ATS Standings

1. Gagnon: 111-79-3 (7-5-1)

2. Moton: 106-84-3 (8-4-1)

T-3. Davenport: 104-86-3 (5-7-1)

T-3. Hanford 104-86-3 (8-4-1)

5. Knox: 95-95-3 (5-7-1)

6. Sobleski: 94-96-3 (5-7-1)

7. O'Donnell: 93-97-3 (7-5-1)

Consensus picks: 105-85-3 (6-6-1)

SU Standings

1. Hanford 129-64 (8-5)

2. Moton: 127-66 (8-5)

3. Knox: 121-72 (9-4)

4. Gagnon: 120-73 (7-6)

5. Davenport: 119-74 (8-5)

6. O'Donnell: 115-78 (9-4)

7. Sobleski: 114-79 (6-7)

Consensus picks: 125-68 (8-5)

Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Dec. 6, at 4 p.m. ET. Check the latest lines at DraftKings. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.

Bettors, if you like points but want some action, place your wager and cover your eyes Thursday night.

The New England Patriots field a stingy defense that's tied for the fourth-fewest touchdowns allowed (13) and ranks third against the run.

On the flip side, last week the Patriots became the first team since 1938 to hold their opponents to 10 or fewer points and lose in three consecutive games. On top of that, running back Rhamondre Stevenson won't suit up on Thursday because of a high ankle sprain, per ESPN's Adam Schefter.

The Patriots will start quarterback Bailey Zappe for the second consecutive outing, and running back Ezekiel Elliott, who has a lot of tread on his legs, will likely handle a lion's share of the carries.

Offensively, the Steelers don't inspire much optimism either. They'll start Mitch Trubisky in place of Kenny Pickett, who underwent ankle surgery.

Hanford expects two offenses that rank 28th or worse in scoring to possibly produce one touchdown, which makes it hard to pick Pittsburgh to cover a six-point spread.

"The first team to find the end zone may win this one because it's hard to believe either team is going to put together enough offense to do it more than once. The easiest path to points in this Mitch Trubisky vs. Bailey Zappe quarterback battle may be a defensive touchdown. Put simply, everything about this matchup is ugly.

"While the Steelers have more collective talent on both sides of the ball, it's impossible to trust a team that sleepwalked to a home loss against the Cardinals last week. Three of the last four matchups between these two teams have been decided by one score, and I don't expect this one to be much different. Steelers win but Patriots cover."

Predictions

Davenport: Patriots

Gagnon: Patriots

Hanford: Patriots

Knox: Patriots

Moton: Steelers

O'Donnell: Patriots

Sobleski: Patriots

ATS Consensus: Patriots +6

SU Consensus: Steelers

Score Prediction: Steelers 13, Patriots 9

Since Week 9, the Houston Texans and New York Jets have trended in opposite directions. The Texans have won four of their last five games while Gang Green has dropped five consecutive contests.

After conflicting reports about quarterback Zach Wilson's willingness to reassume the first-string role, New York named him its starter for Sunday's contest with Houston.

Gang Green has benched Wilson three times in three years. This season, he's thrown for 1,944 yards, six touchdowns and seven interceptions with a 59.2 percent completion rate.

Our crew doesn't think Wilson's fourth run as a starter will be a charm. It unanimously picked Houston to win by at least a touchdown. Moton spoke on behalf of the consensus choice.

"What's the definition of insanity? It's doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results—that's where the Jets stand with their quarterback situation," Moton said.

"Gang Green benched Wilson for a good reason. He threw two touchdown passes and three interceptions in six games between Weeks 5 and 11.

"The Jets could've tried to spark the offense with Trevor Siemian, but instead, they'll put the ball in Wilson's hands for another abysmal offensive performance.

"We've seen this movie several times already, and we know how it ends. The Texans will cover the spread as the Jets struggle to reach double digits on the scoreboard."

Predictions

Davenport: Texans

Gagnon: Texans

Hanford: Texans

Knox: Texans

Moton: Texans

O'Donnell: Texans

Sobleski: Texans

ATS Consensus: Texans -4.5

SU Consensus: Texans

Score Prediction: Texans 21, Jets 12

The Detroit Lions will play the Chicago Bears for the second time in three weeks. Back in Week 11, the Bears nearly upset the Lions on the road, leading 26-14 late in the fourth quarter, but they came up short 31-26. Chicago still covered a 9.5-point spread, though.

In Chicago, the Lions only get slim odds in their favor after they lost 29-22 to the Green Bay Packers at home on Thanksgiving and nearly squandered a 21-point first-quarter lead to the New Orleans Saints.

Detroit's recent performances made some of our experts nervous, but the majority went with the better team to win by more than a field goal.

Davenport feels he'll sweat through this matchup for the Lions, but he doesn't see how the Bears offense keeps pace with the league's sixth-ranked scoring attack.

"I can't lie. The Lions make me nervous, and not just because Gagnon picked Chicago, and I think he's a member of the Illuminati controlling the outcome of NFL games (I may need to watch less YouTube). The Detroit defense has recently been…bad. Maybe not 2022 Lions bad, but close enough that the anxiety level from the Detroit fanbase is almost as high as U-M fans who found out they were playing Alabama and not Florida State.

"The Bears also have a sneaky-good defense, especially against the run. But if their 12-10 Week 12 win over the Vikings was any indication, the Bears offense may be just what Detroit's D needs to get untracked.

"The Lions aren't a legit Super Bowl contender (Sorry—they just aren't.), but they're a fair bit more than three points better than a Bears team whose best bet is stacking losses, firing Matt Eberflus and then drafting Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr."

Predictions

Davenport: Lions

Gagnon: Bears

Hanford: Lions

Knox: Lions

Moton: Lions

O'Donnell: Bears

Sobleski: Lions

ATS Consensus: Lions -3

SU Consensus: Lions

Score Prediction: Lions 23, Bears 17

After a 3-6 start, the Los Angeles Rams have won three consecutive games, scoring 37 and 36 points in their last two outings.

Running back Kyren Williams has provided a significant boost to the Rams offense since his return from an ankle injury. He's racked up 316 yards from scrimmage and scored three touchdowns over the last two weeks.

With wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua on the perimeter and Williams in the backfield, the Rams seem equipped to cover a seven-point spread, but our crew (except Sobleski) isn't buying that notion.

Gagnon believes the Rams have thrashed bottom-tier teams and clubs with backup quarterbacks, and they could be exposed by a Super Bowl contender.

"The Rams have been taking advantage of a soft stretch in the schedule, and now they're in for a rude awakening on the road against a Ravens team that has put up more than 30 points in four consecutive home games. Los Angeles isn't as good as its record, and Baltimore can't mess around here."

Predictions

Davenport: Ravens

Gagnon: Ravens

Hanford: Ravens

Knox: Ravens

Moton: Ravens

O'Donnell: Ravens

Sobleski: Rams

ATS Consensus: Ravens -7

SU Consensus: Ravens

Score Prediction: Ravens 28, Rams 16

Derek Carr could miss his first game as a New Orleans Saint. He's in concussion protocol for the second time in three weeks. Though it's worth noting that Carr practiced with limitations on Wednesday.

The Saints may roll with Jameis Winston and sprinkle in Taysom Hill (foot and hand injuries) in place of Carr, which may be good enough to win the game, but Knox doesn't think either or a combo of both will help New Orleans cover the spread.

"I have little faith that the Panthers can win this, but I also find it hard to believe that the Saints will run away with it. With Derek Carr back in concussion protocol, I think New Orleans struggles to put up a lot of points here. As much as I enjoy watching Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston, I think that tandem leaves the Saints open to mistakes and offensive inconsistencies.

"New Orleans has struggled to run the ball consistently and stop the run, which gives Carolina an advantageous matchup. I think this one unfolds a lot like last week's Panthers-Bucs game. Carolina does just enough to keep it close, while New Orleans keeps its playoff hopes alive in a must-win game."

Predictions

Davenport: Saints

Gagnon: Panthers

Hanford: Saints

Knox: Panthers

Moton: Panthers

O'Donnell: Saints

Sobleski: Saints

ATS Consensus: Saints -5.5

SU Consensus: Saints

Score Prediction: Saints 24, Panthers 17

Even though we saw what looked like a gruesome leg injury for Trevor Lawrence on Monday, he might suit up to play this weekend.

According to The Athletic's Jeff Howe, Lawrence will rehab his high ankle sprain in a push to play against the Cleveland Browns. If he's unable to take the field, C.J. Beathard will likely fill in for him as he did last Monday against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Beathard hasn't started in a game since the 2020 campaign with the San Francisco 49ers. In a quarter of play against the Bengals, he completed nine out of 10 passes for 63 yards.

Whether Lawrence plays or not, our panel gave the consensus nod to the Browns because of their stifling defense, though they will trot out a backup quarterback (Joe Flacco or Dorian Thompson-Robinson).

Sobleski weighed the Jaguars' two quarterback options and explained why he picked the Browns.

"Cleveland's latest matchup comes down to the Jaguars' quarterback position. If Trevor Lawrence somehow plays with a high ankle sprain, he won't be mobile, and the Browns' aggressive front can pin its ears back and make life miserable throughout the afternoon," Sobleski said.

"If Lawrence doesn't play and a more nimble C.J. Beathard starts, Cleveland still holds a significant advantage since Jacksonville's left tackle Cam Robinson is currently on injured reserve, and the Browns can attack the reworked left side of the Jaguars' offensive line."

Predictions

Davenport: Jaguars

Gagnon: Jaguars

Hanford: Browns

Knox: Browns

Moton: Browns

O'Donnell: Jaguars

Sobleski: Browns

ATS Consensus: Browns -3

SU Consensus: Browns

Score Prediction: Browns 21, Jaguars 16

This week, the Atlanta Falcons could sweep their season series with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to remain undefeated in the NFC South.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers can build some momentum and tie the Falcons in a tight race for the division title.

As Knox points out, both teams could play without key players, but he highlighted the uncertainty around Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell, which swayed him in favor of Tampa Bay to win outright.

As you read through Knox's reasons to pick Tampa Bay, remember that Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans torched the Carolina Panthers' fourth-ranked pass defense with seven catches for 162 yards and a touchdown last week.

"I was leaning heavily toward Atlanta early in the week, but mounting defensive injuries have me going the other way. Tampa Bay isn't exactly healthy either, but the Bucs have adopted a gritty underdog mentality, and I think they're better equipped to handle what's probably going to be an ugly game.

"With A.J. Terrell potentially out (concussion), I see Atlanta struggling to find answers for Mike Evans. When Evans takes over, the Bucs typically have a chance to win. I think they win the rematch and keep things unpredictable in the NFC South."

Predictions

Davenport: Buccaneers

Gagnon: Falcons

Hanford: Falcons

Knox: Buccaneers

Moton: Falcons

O'Donnell: Buccaneers

Sobleski: Falcons

ATS Consensus: Falcons -2.5

SU Consensus: Falcons

Score Prediction: Falcons 20, Buccaneers 17

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Jake Browning has become a popular name, especially in fantasy football discussions circles, after his 354-yard, two-touchdown (one passing and one rushing) performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday.

Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts will be riding a four-game winning streak into this matchup.

While Browning has drawn praise for his breakout showing under the bright prime-time lights, Sobleski believes the Bengals signal-caller will come back down to earth in a loss a surging club with a formidable defense.

"Jake Browning's performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football was truly special," Sobleski said. "But don't expect a repeat against the Colts, whose defense has been fantastic in recent weeks.

"As Locked on Colts' Zach Hicks noted, opposing passers have a 60 completion percentage for 791 yards, a seven-to-nine touchdown-to-interception ratio and four fumbles during Indianapolis' current four-game winning streak. The Colts are also second in the league with 42 sacks.

"Even if the Bengals decide to lean on their running game, Grover Stewart's return to the lineup after a six-game suspension will make Indianapolis' front dramatically tougher at the point of attack."

Predictions

Davenport: Colts

Gagnon: Bengals

Hanford: Colts

Knox: Bengals

Moton: Bengals

O'Donnell: Colts

Sobleski: Colts

ATS Consensus: Colts -1

SU Consensus: Colts

Score Prediction: Colts 28, Bengals 26

The Seattle Seahawks will look to get even with the San Francisco 49ers, who pulverized them at Lumen Field on Thanksgiving, and snap a three-game losing streak.

We can easily make the case that the 49ers head into Week 14 as the best team leaguewide following a 42-19 road victory over the Philadelphia Eagles (10-2). Since its Week 9 bye, San Francisco has beaten all four of its opponents by at least 13 points.

Moreover, the 49ers have knocked off the Seahawks by at least 18 points in three of their last four matchups. Gagnon believes Seattle could fall apart on the road this weekend.

"When the 49ers win, they win big with an average margin of victory of 13.6 points," Gagnon said. "Nobody else in the NFC except Dallas is higher than 3.4 in that metric. They're also on a complete roll right now, while Seattle could be toast following a tough prime-time loss to Dallas.

"The 49ers crushed the Seahawks on the road on Thanksgiving and should have no issue doing that again here at home."

Predictions

Davenport: 49ers

Gagnon: 49ers

Hanford: 49ers

Knox: 49ers

Moton: 49ers

O'Donnell: 49ers

Sobleski: 49ers

ATS Consensus: 49ers -10.5

SU Consensus: 49ers

Score Prediction: 49ers 34, Seahawks 21

We can't give the preparation edge to the Minnesota Vikings or the Las Vegas Raiders with both squads coming off a bye week.

However, the Vikings will get an offensive boost with All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson set to return from a seven-game absence.

Our crew sides with the Vikings to snap their two-game skid and cover as they hand the Raiders their third consecutive loss. Moton can see Minnesota racking up a ton of points in Las Vegas.

"Last week, the Raiders released cornerback Marcus Peters, so they'll have to change up their personnel in the secondary with Justin Jefferson set to return, which isn't an ideal situation," Moton said.

"In recent weeks, Peters had been a major liability in coverage, but the Raiders may not have an answer for one of the few wide receivers who can compete with Davante Adams for the title of the best at the position. The Vikings also have an emerging wideout in rookie first-rounder Jordan Addison. Don't forget that Las Vegas has a weakness up front with its 25th-ranked run defense.

"The Raiders haven't scored more than 17 points in any of their last three games. They're working with a first-time offensive coordinator in Bo Hardegree and a rookie quarterback in Aidan O'Connell. As the Silver and Black struggle to score, the Vikings will find ways to reach paydirt through the air and on the ground to cover the spread comfortably on the road."

Predictions

Davenport: Raiders

Gagnon: Raiders

Hanford: Vikings

Knox: Vikings

Moton: Vikings

O'Donnell: Vikings

Sobleski: Vikings

ATS Consensus: Vikings -3

SU Consensus: Vikings

Score Prediction: Vikings 26, Raiders 20

Last week, the Denver Broncos' five-game winning streak came to an end in a 22-17 loss to the Houston Texans while the Los Angeles Chargers shut out the New England Patriots 6-0.

The Broncos and Chargers are battling for second place in the AFC West with the Las Vegas Raiders in the rear-view mirror. At this point in the season, odds for games between division opponents with playoff hopes give us reason to pause with extended thought.

Despite the Broncos' recent red-hot streak, the banged-up Chargers, who have lost three of their last four games, are favored at home.

While most of our panel gave the nod to the Broncos, Davenport went in the other direction.

"This is the 4 a.m. Taco Bell run of NFL picks—before you even finish making it you regret it, and odds are you're going to wind up nauseous at some point. All the passing game injuries with the Bolts have affected Justin Herbert. The L.A. pass defense couldn't cover a bed with a sheet. And head coach Brandon Staley is the Zen master of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

"But just like that late-night craving for a Chalupa Supreme, my gut says the Bolts get Austin Ekeler going, Khalil Mack has another big game and the mass of mediocrity behind the Chiefs in the AFC West gets that much muddier."

Predictions

Davenport: Chargers

Gagnon: Chargers

Hanford: Broncos

Knox: Broncos

Moton: Broncos

O'Donnell: Broncos

Sobleski: Broncos

ATS Consensus: Broncos +2.5

SU Consensus: Broncos

Score Prediction: Broncos 27, Chargers 23

A lot of fans outside of these respective fanbases had the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs as potential combatants in the AFC Championship Game, but both clubs come into this game in a bit of trouble.

The Bills have lost three of their past four games and had a bye week to regroup with a tough schedule ahead. The Chiefs have lost three of their last five outings while averaging 19.4 points per game in that stretch.

As O'Donnell explains, the Bills need this get-right game a little more than the Chiefs as they straddle .500. With that said, we're going to wonder if Kansas City will make an early playoff exit if it fails to score 20 points for the third time in the last four weeks.

O'Donnell likes a more desperate Buffalo squad to win outright.

"I've been aboard the 'Josh Allen's Bills will finally win the Super Bowl this year' boat for too long. And this is it. This is my last cast into Lake Erie after sitting for years with my fishing rod in hand hoping to catch the largest walleye ever," O'Donnell said.

"Both teams have its backs to the wall coming off losses, but the Bills are much worse off. The implications hanging overhead—Chiefs potentially losing more ground in the race for the AFC's No. 1 seed and the Bills shockingly clinging to playoff hopes—make this a de facto playoff game here in Week 14.

"I don't know what to make of Mahomes and the Chiefs' offensive struggles right now, but I still consider them title contenders regardless of this game's outcome. The Bills need this, right bloodydamn now, and I'm going to take them straight up—the points are simply an added bonus in this scenario—in belief that a win will keep my boat afloat long enough to keep my line in the water."

Predictions

Davenport: Chiefs

Gagnon: Chiefs

Hanford: Bills

Knox: Chiefs

Moton: Chiefs

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Bills

ATS Consensus: Chiefs -2.5

SU Consensus: Chiefs

Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Bills 24

In the marquee matchup for Week 14, the Dallas Cowboys will look to extend their four-game winning streak in a divisional battle with the Philadelphia Eagles, who suffered a crushing 42-19 defeat at home courtesy of the San Francisco 49ers this past weekend.

This week, the Eagles signed Shaq Leonard to patch up their linebacker corps in preparation for MVP candidate Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' No. 1-ranked scoring offense.

Most of our crew picked the Eagles to cover the spread but chose Dallas to come out on top. Hanford went all the way with Philadelphia to win outright.

"Dallas has been on fire as of late, averaging 42 points per game in wins over the Panthers, Giants, Commanders and Seahawks after losing to the Eagles in Week 9. Aside from the Seahawks, though—and Thursday night's game got uncomfortable for Dallas—none of those games should have presented a challenge for the Cowboys. So it's hard for me to praise them extensively.

"The 49ers put the Eagles' warts on full display last week, using their YAC monster offense to exploit the Eagles' patchwork LB core in space. But Dallas' offense doesn't scheme the way Kyle Shanahan's does even if Dak Prescott is getting (deserved) MVP hype at the moment.

"Despite last week's blowout loss, I still believe the Eagles to be one of the two best teams in the NFL. And they're resilient, as they've shown in close wins throughout the year. Look for the Eagles to bounce back and not only cover the 3.5 but win outright to snap Dallas' five-game winning streak in AT&T Stadium in this rivalry series."

Predictions

Davenport: Eagles

Gagnon: Eagles

Hanford: Eagles

Knox: Eagles

Moton: Eagles

O'Donnell: Eagles

Sobleski: Cowboys

ATS Consensus: Eagles +3.5

SU Consensus: Cowboys

Score Prediction: Cowboys 30, Eagles 27

As of Wednesday, the Miami Dolphins hold the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Because of that, you'll likely see them dialed into this prime-time Monday Night Football matchup with the Tennessee Titans.

On top of that, Tennessee has the worst record as an away team ATS (1-5-0). The Titans will find it difficult to keep pace with Miami's second-ranked scoring offense.

Our entire panel unanimously agreed to swallow all of these points to take the Dolphins to win by 14 or more. Moton explained why he felt confident in that decision.

"The Dolphins do one thing really well: beat inferior opponents with poor records. The Titans fit the description," Moton said.

"Last week, Tennessee's 22nd-ranked pass defense allowed Indianapolis Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew to throw for 312 yards and two touchdowns in an overtime game. Wideouts Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce racked up 100-plus receiving yards apiece.

"No disrespect to Minshew Mania, but Tua Tagovailoa has elite playmakers around him who can help him do a lot more damage. Wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will literally run circles around the Titans secondary, and running backs Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane will finish the job on the ground in a blowout victory."

Predictions

Davenport: Dolphins

Gagnon: Dolphins

Hanford: Dolphins

Knox: Dolphins

Moton: Dolphins

O'Donnell: Dolphins

Sobleski: Dolphins

ATS Consensus: Dolphins -13

SU Consensus: Dolphins

Score Prediction: Dolphins 42, Titans 14

Perhaps the Green Bay Packers have found their franchise quarterback, as Jordan Love has made significant strides over the course of the season. He's thrown 10 touchdowns and only two interceptions in his last four outings.

Green Bay suddenly looks like a playoff team with four wins in the last five weeks. After upset victories over the Detroit Lions (9-3) and Kansas City Chiefs (8-4), the Packers should roll over the New York Giants, right?

On a four-to-three count, we sided with the Packers ATS, but O'Donnell went all-in on a Giants upset.

"Jordan Love. Tommy DeVito. Jordan Love. Giants defense. Jordan Love... is riding a surging three-game winning streak with eight touchdowns to zero interceptions. I've based almost every game involving the Packers around my feelings for Jordan Love and, lo and behold, I still do not love Jordan Love.

"The Giants are coming off a bye and have somehow won two games with DeVito under center. Sure, those Ws came against the Commanders and Patriots, but Big Blue has been forcing turnovers and while steadfastly protecting the ball themselves.

"We just witnessed a monumental upset on Monday Night Football this past week—yes, I'm one of the bitter folks who finally suffered a survivor pool defeat courtesy of that game—and this one wouldn't shock me in the least to see the same happen. And even if the Giants come up on the losing end, I'm more than satisfied with the point buffer provided here."

Predictions

Davenport: Packers

Gagnon: Giants

Hanford: Packers

Knox: Giants

Moton: Packers

O'Donnell: Giants

Sobleski: Packers

ATS Consensus: Packers -7

SU Consensus: Packers

Score Prediction: Packers 28, Giants 20

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