Rory McIlroy hasn't won a major since 2014, but he's come close. The 26-time PGA Tour winner has finished second in three of his last 20 majors since taking home the Open Championship in 2014. McIlroy finished second at last year's U.S. Open, one shot behind Wyndham Clark, for his fourth straight top-10 showing at the U.S. Open. Does this mean you should include the four-time major winner in your 2024 U.S. Open picks? McIlroy is 9-1 in the 2024 U.S. Open odds. He has the second-shortest odds in the 2024 U.S. Open field despite going winless over his last 20 major events, so is there value in playing him to win the U.S. Open 2024?
The 2024 U.S. Open tees off from Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina beginning on Thursday, June 13 and Scottie Scheffler is the 4-1 favorite. Should you bet one of the favorites or could there be a longshot among the 2024 U.S. Open golfers like Max Homa (30-1) or Jordan Spieth (35-1) to include in your 2024 U.S. Open prediction? Before locking in any 2024 U.S. Open picks of your own, entering PGA DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings or FanDuel, or finalizing U.S. Open props and U.S. Open Pick 6 or PrizePicks entries, be sure to see the 2024 U.S. Open golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
McClure's model correctly predicted Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and The Players Championship this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,000.
The model also predicted Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 12 majors entering the weekend, including the last three Masters and 2024 PGA Championship. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now with the U.S. Open 2024 approaching, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top 2024 U.S. Open predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2024 U.S. Open: Brooks Koepka (12-1), a two-time U.S. Open champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles and barely cracks the top 10. Koepka has five major championships overall but he hasn't been much of a factor in major tournaments since that last victory at the 2023 PGA Championship. In his four majors since then, his best finish is tying for 17th at last year's U.S. Open. Koepka has finished outside the top 25 in each of his last three major starts, which is one shy of tying a career-long drought.
He's finished outside the top 15 in four straight appearances at majors and has struggled overall this season. Over his last eight tournament starts, he has twice as many finishes outside the top 25 (four) as he has inside the top 10 (two). Add in that he shot over par in his lone previous start at Pinehurst No. 2, and there are much better values to utilize U.S. Open 2024 bets on.See who else to fade here.
Another surprise: Justin Thomas, a 33-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win than his long odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Thomas has recorded seven top-25 finishes in his first 11 events of the season, including a T8 in the PGA Championship, T5 in the RBC Heritage and T6 in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Thomas ranks seventh on the PGA Tour in both strokes gained: approach to green and birdie average, making him a dangerous player when he gets on a roll. Thomas is a two-time major champion who has a pair of top-10 finishes at the U.S. Open during his career. His recent form and experience winning majors make him an appealing longshot wager for the 2024 U.S. Open, according to the model.See who else to back here.
How to make 2024 U.S. Open picks
The model is also targeting two other golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2024 U.S. Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the U.S. Open 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected U.S. Open leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 12 golf majors, including the last three Masters and the 2024 PGA Championship.
2024 U.S. Open odds, field
Get full 2024 U.S. Open picks, best bets, and predictions here
Scottie Scheffler 4-1
Rory McIlroy 9-1
Xander Schauffele 10-1
Brooks Koepka 12-1
Jon Rahm 12-1
Ludvig Aberg 14-1
Viktor Hovland 18-1
Collin Morikawa 18-1
Bryson DeChambeau 20-1
Patrick Cantlay 22-1
Wyndham Clark 22-1
Joaquin Niemann 25-1
Cameron Smith 25-1
Max Homa 30-1
Justin Thomas 33-1
Cameron Young 35-1
Dustin Johnson 35-1
Jordan Spieth 35-1
Hideki Matsuyama 35-1
Shane Lowry 40-1
Sahith Theegala 40-1
Tom Kim 40-1
Tony Finau 40-1
Sungjae Im 40-1
Matt Fitzpatrick 40-1
Jason Day 45-1
Tommy Fleetwood 50-1
Min Woo Lee 50-1
Tyrrell Hatton 50-1
Brian Harman 55-1
Corey Conners 60-1
Sam Burns 60-1
Patrick Reed 60-1
Si Woo Kim 65-1
Justin Rose 65-1
Sepp Straka 70-1
Louis Oosthuizen 75-1
Abraham Ancer 75-1
Rickie Fowler 75-1
Adam Scott 75-1
Talor Gooch 75-1
Russell Henley 90-1
Daniel Berger 100-1
Keegan Bradley 100-1
Keith Mitchell 125-1
Ryan Fox 125-1
J.T. Poston 125-1
Billy Horschel 125-1
Tiger Woods 125-1
Sergio Garcia 125-1
Thomas Pieters 150-1
Kurt Kitayama 150-1
Phil Mickelson 150-1
Mito Pereira 150-1
Denny McCarthy 150-1
Harris English 150-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 150-1
Adam Schenk 175-1
Emiliano Grillo 175-1
Austin Eckroat 175-1
Robert MacIntyre 175-1
Marc Leishman 175-1
Adam Hadwin 175-1
Lucas Glover 200-1
Nick Taylor 200-1
Davis Riley 200-1
Mackenzie Hughes 200-1
Jason Kokrak 200-1
Harold Varner III 225-1
Seamus Power 225-1
Taylor Moore 250-1
Ben Kohles 250-1
Gary Woodland 250-1
Aaron Wise 250-1
Francisco Molinari 350-1
Joel Dahmen 350-1
Martin Kaymer 500-1
Bernhard Langer 750-1
